Flu Time

Avian Flu Effect on the World

There is growing concern of the effect of the Avian flu turning into a pandemic and some experts argue that the world is unprepared.  A pandemic is an outbreak of bird flu that would cover a wide area and infect and cause the death of a significant portion of the world population.  The last major pandemic that caused widespread disease was “the Spanish Flu” of 1918 which left tens of millions dead.  Experts predict that the timing is right for this effect; the world is due for another pandemic.  They also predict that the effect of the next pandemic could possibly infect 20% of the world population with a staggering death toll.  Third World countries without the resources and technology that the developed nations have will be hit the hardest.

The Bird Flu Human Toll Effect

As of the first week of May 2006 there have 146 confirmed cases of H5N1 strain of the avian flu in six countries.  The total number of fatalities linked to this strain is up to 123.  It is predicted that the effect of avian flu could become a pandemic as soon as the virus gains the ability to transmit itself from human to human.  It is predicted that once this takes place there would be 50 million deaths globally.  If 20% of the global population is out of commission due to illness and also fear of being infected, this will affect all quarters of the workforce.  In the worst case scenario, there may food and energy shortages associated with the diminished work force and import/export restrictions.

The Economic Impact

The affect of the pandemic is already being felt in some countries.  The economic growth of East Asian countries is already showing trends of slowing down.  It is predicted that this would be slow year for economic growth.  This is reflected in the poultry industry and tourism industry.  Since the first outbreak of avian flu, million of birds have been culled to limited or stop the spread of the disease.  There are reports that this culling on such a massive scale can cost the economy over 10 billion dollars in income.  In the majority of the countries affected, the farming is not on a large scale.  Poultry farming is mostly done on small scale by backyard low income farmers.  With their flocks being culled, these farmers lose their income resulting in devastating socioeconomic effects.  There are effects on Tourism also.  There would be a ban or restrictions of travel to areas where the virus has been reported.  Some countries like Turkey have already reported seeing a drop in their tourism industry with tourists canceling trips and hotel reservations

The Effect on the Healthcare System

Health care system will be overloaded with caring for the sick population.  Hospitals will not be able to cope with large number of people sick from the virus.  Besides the shortage of medical care facilities and staff, there probably will be a shortage of medical supplies.  Health care workers may fall ill exuberating the situation further.